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Green Blog: A One-Stop Shop for Water Worries

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 31 Januari 2013 | 15.49

Water, or the lack thereof, is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century. As temperatures rise and droughts become more frequent, the threat of dwindling water resources worries not just environmentalists and governments but companies and their investors, too.

Nearly every industrial sector, from food and beverages to mining to pharmaceuticals, depends on water for its operations. Figuring out which places are likely to be hit hardest can help a company either steer clear of a certain region or plan ahead to minimize damage to its business or supply chain.

Now, a new interactive tool is at hand to help clarify those risks.

The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas, just unveiled online by the nonprofit World Resources Institute's Aqueduct project, maps the state of freshwater globally. The interface allows companies, investors, governments or any other interested party to visualize and compare water conditions, from the continental scale to the local one.

"As important as water is, we give it very little attention," said Betsy Otto, the project's director. "We haven't invested as we should in pricing, tracking and locating water in ways that make most sense for human economies."

Ms. Otto's working assumption is that if companies have the means to take water risks into consideration, they will do so. Many companies have already made that commitment, and some are partners on the Aqueduct project, including Goldman Sachs, General Electric, Bloomberg, Talisman Energy and Dow.

"For us, water is a strategic issue," said Kyung-Ah Park, head of the environmental markets group at Goldman Sachs. "We look at supply chain issues and disruptions which could have an implication on our client's bottom line."

The full version of the atlas, three years in the making, harnesses the latest geo-tagged scientific data to create 12 different indicators of water quality, including drought, flood and seasonal variability. The indicators visually overlay one another to create a composite view of aggregate water stress. The ecosystems layer, for example, highlights fragile habitats where freshwater fishes, amphibians and birds may live, while the groundwater supply layer — the first of its kind to be included in such an analysis — indicates places where aquifers might be drying up.

Not every user, however, defines risk in the same way, and the tool enables you to weight different indicators accordingly. Aqueduct also provides preset water scenarios tailored to 10 different sectors, including semiconductor manufacturing, textiles, and oil and gas. More advanced users can shape the maps to fit individual needs.

"Once a company develops a map to perfectly reflect its scenario, it can compare which places expose its operation to the highest risk," said Robert Kimball, an associate at the World Resources Institute. "We want the information to be out there in an easily usable, accessible way."

The institute acknowledges that the maps are not perfect. Information is far from complete on global groundwater conditions, for example, and very few real-time monitoring efforts are in place for freshwater. The organization plans to gradually incorporate new findings, however, including remote sensing data and monitoring results from NASA satellites.

In April, it plans to release maps predicting the water situation for 2020; projections for 2030 and 2040 will follow.


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Green Blog: Lost Actors in a Haunting Landscape

My son, Luca, and I were perched in a basket high on the back of a towering Asian elephant, swaying rhythmically back and forth to its lumbering gait. The driver, or mahout, straddled the animal's neck, calling out frequently in a secret language of shouts, moans and pleas.

We were 10 minutes — as the elephant walks — outside a village on the edge of the Xe Pian National Biodiversity Conservation Area in southern Laos. We had left the Mekong for a few days and traveled into the hills on the eastern edge of the basin, dusty and parched, as the dry season settled in.

The trail had just left a teak plantation and entered thick forest when we heard it.

Deep, guttural, almost menacing. I swung my head toward Luca and whispered, "Did you hear that?" He nodded excitedly. A thrill spider skittered down my spine. We were in tiger country, and the sound's source had clearly been close.

"Was that a tiger?" Luca whispered.

"I don't know… But, wow, I don't know what could have made the sound."

I was sure it wasn't an elephant. We were last in a line of three elephants, and though I couldn't quite pinpoint it, the sound had definitely come from either directly beside or close behind us.

The mahout seemed relaxed, lost in thought. Clearly he must have heard the sound, but he didn't register any response. I pointed this out to Luca: "He would have said something if that had been a tiger."

Because the mahout didn't speak English, we waited until we'd caught up with the guide, who had halted his elephant to point out a crested serpent eagle in a tree. "Can you ask the mahout about a sound we just heard?" I asked him.

They conferred, and the guide shook his head. "Not sure about a sound … but there's a crested serpent eagle," he repeated.

Still, we were in a forest that harbored tigers, so in theory, it could have been a tiger.

I soon learned just how narrow that sliver of possibility was.

A half-hour later, the three elephants, including one carrying my wife, Paola, and our daughter, Wren, gathered around a strange square pit in a small clearing.

"This was a trap for elephants, many years ago," our guide explained. "They'd cut boards and place them over the pit and cover them with leaves. When the elephant was about in the middle, the boards gave way and they fell in. An adult elephant could work itself out, but a young one would be trapped. That's one of the ways they got these elephants."

We were riding elephants that had previously been used in logging operations, hauling thousand-pound teak logs out of the rugged and roadless forest.

"Are there any wild elephants left in Xe Pian?" I asked the guide.

"No wild elephants have been seen for a long time," he replied. I then thought about the amazing list of animals in a guide book that had drawn me to Xe Pian in the first place.

"Tigers?"

"Almost certainly not."

"Gaur, banteng?" I asked. (Two species of huge wild cattle.)

"People say, oh, that guy has seen one, but you can never find anyone who actually has."

"Gibbons?"

"Not here, maybe very deep in the forest, by the border of Cambodia."

"Siamese crocodile?"

"No."

"Rhinoceros?"

"Hmmph," he said, shaking his head with a rueful smile, seeming amused that I would even ask.

I stopped asking. The guidebook list that had stoked such excitement had just abruptly collided with the reality of the "empty forest syndrome."

From Google Earth, Xe Pian is a vast landscape of unbroken dry evergreen forest and savanna. On the ground, various drivers — from people's hunger to the insanely lucrative markets for animal parts — have drained that list of its relevance to Xe Pian's natural history.

Now it just describes the landscape's history.

We were staying at Kingfisher Ecolodge, on the edge of Xe Pian. It is is run by Massimo Mero, an Italian married to a Lao woman who has made a considerable bet on this park, investing his savings to create an absolutely lovely spot with a lodge and bungalows that overlook a vast wetland stretching toward distant forests and ridges.

We had arrived the previous day. As we stood at the front desk, Massimo entered to greet us, and Paola (who was born in Rome and has an Italian father) switched from speaking Lao with the staff to speaking Italian with the owner. I stood there feeling wholly inadequate, at least linguistically.

I'd had some misgivings about riding elephants, so I asked Massimo about it. He assured us that, at least for these elephants and for the village adjacent to Kingfisher, the elephant riding was beneficial.

"Because they're no longer needed for logging, these animals would be unemployed," he said "They'd probably be sold to more intense tourism places that don't treat them well."

We later learned that the elephants here work only a few times a week and spend most of their days out in the wetland, free to roam and graze.

On the night we arrived, we sat at a table on Kingfisher's deck overlooking a small pond and read the menu by candlelight while being serenaded by an orchestra of cicadas and frogs. Thus far we had faithfully eaten only the local cuisine, but Massimo's menu tempted us with bruschetta and pasta fatta in casa. Homemade pasta in Laos was quite unexpected, as was the decent bottle of … Bordeaux! (Insert sound of scratching record.)

Before dinner, I'd used my limited Italian to ask Massimo if he had a good selection of "vini rossi Italiani."

"Alas, no," he replied, wincing and putting his hand on his stomach as if he'd just been hit. "Italian wines are impossible to get. I have only French."

Knowing my father-in-law's passionate zeal for his native reds, matched only by his disdain for those of France, I understood how this admission must have pained Massimo.

Nevertheless, the mostly Italian flavors were a delicious break from the steady parade of fish sauce and lemongrass.

The next afternoon, after our elephant ride, we relaxed on the deck of our bungalow and watched the sun slide toward the far ridges.

The setting was glorious, but I kept thinking about the empty forest.

It's easy to feel disappointment, or disapproval of the Lao hunters who have cleared the forest of wildlife, particularly in a protected area. But in the United States, we're not that far removed from a time when wildlife had a different name: dinner.

It's hard to believe today, with animals like white-tail deer, turkeys and beaver so abundant as to be a nuisance in many suburbs, that only a few generations ago, the "rural villagers" of the United States had nearly eliminated those animals across most of the country. When food security is low, the value of large animals as protein is high.

"You know," I said to Paola, "Massimo basically has the equivalent of an amazing lodge at the edge of Yellowstone, but Yellowstone in 1880. The wolves and cougars are nearly gone, and even the herds of buffalo and elk are hammered by poachers."

An elephant slowly ambled by, 50 yards from where we sat drinking a Beer Lao. Then a herd of water buffalo streamed onto the scene, like tanks entering a battlefield with an air force of cattle egrets providing cover.

At that moment, I put aside my purist's expectations and just enjoyed the spectacle of massive mammals grazing right in front of me in the golden late-afternoon light. (A slide show is here.)

This recasting of expectations was fairly easy for the elephant, but even the domestic water buffalo are nearly indistinguishable from their wild brethren, which are among the rarest wild bovids on the planet.

The tether of domesticity is fairly weak on all of these animals and, if abandoned, they would quite easily cross back into their wild form.

With a vivid spectacle in the foreground framed by a stunning backdrop, it was like watching a staging of a Sophocles play in a beautiful Greek theater. Sure, they weren't the original actors, but who was I to complain?

And while, absent time travel, we'll never see the original theater actors, Xe Pian's lost characters could reunite for a comeback performance. Yellowstone has wolves after decades of absence. Bears were absent from Ohio for more than a century but, beginning when I was a toddler, they began their reprise.

Last spring, a young black bear took up temporary residence in the local riverside park where my son plays baseball. Think about it: black bears roaming the edges of a Cleveland suburb.

And I thought about the possibility that Laos could follow a similar trajectory. It seems bleak now, but a lot can change in a few decades. One day someone could be sitting on this deck watching wild elephants in the distance, with gaur and banteng and deer mixed in with the buffalo. And perhaps even tigers will reclaim Xe Pian, slipping invisibly through the forest but thrilling bungalow sleepers with a nocturnal roar.

Speaking of tiger roars, I did learn the source of the guttural sound that we heard on the elephant ride.

Later that day, we dismounted from the elephants and stopped for lunch. We sat on a boulder eating rice and chicken and watched our elephant rip branches off a tree. Then he took a break from his pruning, paused, and ever so slightly lifted his tail.

The menacing sound of elephant flatulence rumbled low through the forest.

Luca and I exchanged a sheepish grin, now that we'd pinpointed the source of our "tiger growl."

Jeff Opperman is a senior freshwater scientist with The Nature Conservancy.


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Malnourished Gain Lifesaver in Antibiotics

Two studies of malnourished children offer the first major new scientific findings in a decade about the causes and treatment of severe malnutrition, which affects more than 20 million children around the world and contributes to the deaths of more than a million a year. Merely giving children a cheap antibiotic along with the usual nutritional treatment could save tens of thousands of lives a year, researchers found.

The studies, in Malawi, led by scientists from Washington University in St. Louis, reveal that severe malnutrition often involves more than a lack of food, and that feeding alone may not cure it.

The antibiotic study found that a week of the medicine raised survival and recovery rates when given at the start of a longer course of a tasty "therapeutic food" made from peanut butter fortified with milk powder, oil, sugar and micronutrients. Malnourished children are prone to infections, and the drugs — either amoxicillin or cefdinir — were so helpful that researchers said medical practice should change immediately to include an antibiotic in the routine treatment of severe malnutrition.

"This is ready for prime time," said Dr. Indi Trehan, an author of the study. The study was published Wednesday in The New England Journal of Medicine. The senior author is Dr. Mark J. Manary, an expert on malnutrition and one of the pioneers in using the fortified peanut butter, which researchers say has saved countless lives.

Because of the results, the World Health Organization expects to recommend broader use of antibiotics in guidelines on treating malnutrition that are to be issued next month, said Zita Weise Prinzo, a technical officer in the group's nutrition department. A week's worth of drugs costs only a few dollars, so governments and donors are likely to accept the idea, researchers say.

The second study shows, for the first time, that an imbalance in bacterial populations in the gut may contribute to a severe form of malnutrition called kwashiorkor.

And it found that the fortified peanut butter could help restore the proper balance. But the senior author of the study, Dr. Jeffrey I. Gordon, said that for the improvement to last, it may be necessary to continue the feeding for longer than the few months that is now customary. Eventually, he said, it may be possible to help children with kwashiorkor by giving them the bacteria they lack, but such treatments have not been developed yet. The study was published on Wednesday in the journal Science.

A researcher not involved in the study, Dr. David Relman of Stanford University, who wrote a commentary in Science, called the findings remarkable, and he said they provided hope that an improved understanding of the gut microbiome could lead to better treatments for malnutrition.

Both studies grew out of a troubling observation. Although use of the enriched peanut butter — known as ready to use therapeutic food — was a huge advance during the last decade, some malnourished children died despite receiving it, or did not grow or gain weight as well as expected. Researchers have long suspected that factors beyond lack of food were involved, like infections or gut problems that interfered with nutrient absorption.

Health authorities already recommend that children sick enough to be hospitalized for malnutrition be given antibiotics routinely, and some doctors have advocated even wider use in malnourished children outside the hospital. But until now, the practice had not been tested in a controlled, rigorous way.

The experiment by Dr. Trehan and his colleagues involved 2,767 children, 6 months to 5 years old, who had severe acute malnutrition but were well enough to be treated as outpatients. All were given the enriched peanut butter and were assigned at random to receive an antibiotic or a placebo for one week.

The researchers tracked rates of recovery and of death, with recovery defined in terms of growth, weight gain and the disappearance of symptoms like swelling, which occur in some of the worst cases.

In the placebo group, 7.4 percent of the children died, compared with only 4.1 percent taking cefdinir and 4.8 percent taking amoxicillin. The figures mean that for every 100 children treated, two to three lives could be saved; treating a million could save more than 20,000.

Antibiotics also helped the children recover from malnutrition. Of those taking placebos, 85.1 percent recovered, compared with 88.7 percent taking amoxicillin and 90.9 percent taking cefdinir. In the children who recovered, the ones taking antibiotics had a higher rate of weight gain.

The researchers were surprised to find that the drugs helped so much and are not sure how to explain it, Dr. Trehan said. But malnutrition and infection can become a vicious cycle, with damage to the intestine disrupting the ability to absorb food and also allowing bacteria to leak into the bloodstream and cause severe illness.

"By a week or two of treatment you see these kids gaining incredible amounts of weight," Dr. Trehan said, adding that the week of antibiotics seemed to make a big difference. Although there is concern that overuse of antibiotics can produce drug-resistant strains of bacteria, he said weeklong treatment in these cases was unlikely to cause that. The second study focused on children with kwashiorkor, which the researchers called "enigmatic" and "virulent." These children often have bulging, distended bellies and spindly arms and legs, but with swelling under the skin. They suffer from liver disease, rashes and skin ulcers, and have poor appetites. Not all malnourished children develop kwashiorkor, and researchers do not know why some do. The disease can lead to reduced I.Q. and lifelong impairment.

Although insufficient protein and calories have been blamed, studies have not been able to pinpoint the exact causes.

"Could it be human genetic variations?" Dr. Gordon asked. "Environmental factors? Malnutrition interacting with impaired immunity? Diarrhea? All these infections? What the heck is going on? That was in a sense part of the birthplace for our study."

The researchers were interested in the makeup of the trillions of bacteria that inhabit the gut — the microbiome — and aid in metabolism, and make some needed vitamins and amino acids. The team studied twins in their first three years of life, including pairs in which one had kwashiorkor and the other did not.

Fecal samples revealed that the children with kwashiorkor had a different, less diverse microbiome than the healthy children. The bacterial mix in their gut became healthier when they were fed the enriched peanut butter, but reverted when the supplement was stopped and the children went back to their usual starchy diets.

When gut bacteria from the children with kwashiorkor were transplanted into the guts of germ-free mice, the animals lost weight if they were fed a typical Malawian diet, and their metabolism became abnormal. They improved if given the enriched peanut butter, but, like the children, reverted when it was taken away.

All the children were treated with the enriched peanut butter, and all improved.


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Green Blog: Market for Bear Bile Threatens Asian Population

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 30 Januari 2013 | 15.49

Bears await food on a farm in Fujian Province in China that is run by the pharmaceuticals maker Guizhentang. The company legally makes tonics from bear bile.European Pressphoto Agency Bears await food on a farm in Fujian Province in China that is run by the pharmaceuticals maker Guizhentang. The company legally makes tonics from bear bile.

The six bears that arrived this month at Animals Asia, an animal rescue center in China, had the grisly symptoms of inhumane bile milking. Greenish bile dripped from open fistulas used to drain gall bladders; teeth were broken and rotted from gnawing on the bars of tiny cages.

Four of the bears have since had surgery to remove gall bladders damaged by years of unhygenic procedures to extract their bile, which is coveted for its purported medicinal properties. One bear's swollen gall bladder was the size of a watermelon.

The latest batch of bears was rescued from an illegal farm by the Sichuan Forestry Department and joins 145 other bears at the center, near Chengdu in southwestern China.
Over all, 285 bears have been rescued since the center opened in 2000

With luck, the six bears will recover at the sanctuary. But thousands on farms, both legal and illegal, continue to suffer in wretched conditions, and countless others living in the wild across Asia are threatened by poaching and their illegal capture.

Bear bile contains a chemical called ursedeoxycholic acid, long used in traditional Chinese medicine to treat gallstones, liver problems and other ailments. There are an estimated 10,000 farmed bears in China, 3,000 in Vietnam, at least 1,000 in South Korea and others in Laos and Myanmar.

Tigers, rhinos and elephants are notoriously poached to satisfy high demand in Asia for their parts, which are falsely assumed to have medicinal properties. Experts warn that sun bears and Asiatic black bears, known colloquially as 'moon bears, are on a similar route to endangerment, although their plight draws less media attention. "No bears are extinct, but all Asian ones are threatened," said Chris Shepherd, a conservation biologist and deputy regional director of the wildlife trade group Traffic who is based in Malaysia.

To address the threat, the demand for bear bile must be sharply reduced, Dr. Shepherd told hundreds of researchers at the International Conference on Bear Research and Management, an annual event held recently in New Delhi.

Reducing demand would require a multipronged effort, experts say. That would mean enforcing existing laws, arresting and prosecuting violators, promoting synthetic and herbal alternatives, and closing illegal farms.

Chinese celebrities like the actor Jackie Chan and the athlete Yao Ming have both spoken out against the bear bile industry to raise public awareness about poaching and the inhumane conditions typically found on farms. Bears often live for years in coffin-like cages in which they are unable to stand or turn around.

The bile is extracted through catheters inserted into the abdomen, with needles or by bringing the gall bladder to the skin's surface, where it will leak bile if prodded.

Legal farming was conceived as a way of increasing the supply of bile to reduce the motivation for poaching wild bears, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature. But there is no evidence that it has done so, it noted in a resolution passed last September, and there is concern among conservationists that it may be detrimental.

The resolution also called on countries with legal bear farms to close down the illegal ones, to ensure that no wild bears are added to farms; to conduct research into bear bile substitutes (there are dozens of synthetic and herbal alternatives) and to conduct an independent peer-reviewed scientific analysis on whether farming protects wild bears.

Some groups argue that the increased supply of farmed bile has only exacerbated demand. "Because a surplus of bear bile is being produced, bile is used in many nonmedical products, like bear bile wine, shampoo, toothpaste and face masks," Animals Asia says. Since bear farming began in China in the early 1980's, bear bile has been aggressively promoted as a cure-all remedy for problems like hangovers, the group added.

In mainland China and Japan, domestic sales of bear bile are legal and theoretically under strict regulation as prescription products. But such sales are illegal in Cambodia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and the international trade is illegal as well.

Yet a 2011 report from Traffic indicated that bear bile products were on sale in traditional medicine outlets in 12 Asian countries and territories.

Nonprescription bear bile products like shampoo or toothpaste are illegal in China yet are readily available for purchase, conservationists say. Tourists from South Korea, a country that has decimated its own wild bear population, are major buyers in China and Vietnam even though taking bear bile products across borders is illegal under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna.

"Farms have drawn in bile consumers by creating a huge market — farmed bile is cheap," said David Garshelis, a research scientist at the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources who is co-chairman of the conservation group's bear specialist group.

In Vietnam, a milliliter of bile might sell for $3 to $10; about 100 milliliters can be extracted from a bear each time, according to Annemarie Weegenaar, the bear and veterinarian team director at Animals Asia's Vietnam center.

In four years, the conservation group is to issue a report on whether bear farms threaten wild populations. Meanwhile, demand appears to be spreading further afield in Asia and is now growing in Indonesia, largely as a result of demand from the Chinese and Koreans doing business there, said Gabriella Fredriksson, a conservation biologist based in Sumatra. A low-level poacher can sell a gall bladder from a bear caught in a simple snare and then killed for about $10.

So far the biggest threat to bears in Indonesia is loss of habitat from forest fires and the conversion of land to palm oil plantations. But in the last few years, poaching has increased, said Dr. Fredriksson, who has been there 15 years.

She cautioned that bears in Indonesia could also become highly threatened. "Fifty years ago, bears were doing well in Cambodia and Laos," she said. "Now there's hardly any left."


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Green Blog: Ski Resort Needs Bigger Wastewater Signs, Agency Says

As I reported here earlier this month, after a decade of legal battles Arizona Snowbowl recently became the first ski area in the world to make snow totally out of wastewater. It is piped directly from a sewage treatment plant in neighboring Flagstaff.

That the snow guns initially produced yellow snow prompted several citizens to file complaints with the state's environmental quality department, arguing that signs warning people not to ingest the snow were too small and that children were observed rolling around in it, among other things.

On Monday, Arizona's environmental quality department reported that it had found two potential violations of state environmental requirements at the resort.

The agency directed Arizona Snowbowl to place signs on snow guns informing the public that reclaimed wastewater is in use and should not be ingested, and to color-code pipes delivering wastewater to distinguish them from Snowbowl's potable water delivery system. The resort has 30 days to comply with the order.

The report noted that some of the snow at the resort had a yellow tinge. But the agency did not test the snow, accepting the explanation of Snowbowl's general manager, J.R. Murray, that the coloration was caused by rust in the pipes that spray the substance.

Mr. Murray said on Tuesday that the ski area had the full intention of complying with all regulations and had already added the requested signs.

But the lack of testing of the snow drew some criticism from Taylor McKinnon of the Center for Biological Diversity, an environmental group, who says that the state cannot assume that the treated wastewater is safe. "That snow remains in the snowpack — people are still skiing in it," he said. "In the spring it will melt and be taken up by plants, animals and soil."

Rudy Preston, one of the citizens who filed a complaint, said that he and others were in the process of appealing the decision. "We provided pictures of people with wastewater snow touching their mouths," he said. "How could they possibly find that skiing has no potential for ingestion?"

The reclaiming of water is increasingly being used as a conservation measure in regions that are short on supplies, especially the arid Southwest. But some environmentalists and others worry that reclaimed water contains chemicals like hormones, pharmaceuticals and antibiotics that are possibly harmful but not yet regulated by the federal government.

Whether such chemicals are harmful in small amounts is a matter of debate.

Mark Shaffer, a spokesman for the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality, said that the state had formed an "emerging contaminants" advisory panel to study the use of reclaimed wastewater and that its first meeting was held in December.


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F.D.A. Approves Genetic Drug to Treat Rare Disease

The Food and Drug Administration approved a new drug Tuesday that not only treats a rare inherited disorder that causes extremely high cholesterol levels and heart attacks by age 30, but does so using a long-sought technology that can shut off specific genes that cause disease.

The drug, Kynamro, which was invented by Isis Pharmaceuticals and will be marketed by Sanofi's Genzyme division, is unlikely to be a blockbuster. It has some worrisome side effects and there might be no more than a few hundred people in the United States with the disease, known as homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, or HoFH.

Still, Kynamro could become the first commercial success for the gene silencing technique, which is known as antisense, and which some experts say is finally poised to fulfill its promise after over two decades of research and numerous disappointments.

"What many people have been waiting for is validation where someone actually makes a profit and where patients actually benefit," said Arthur M. Krieg, chief executive of RaNA Therapeutics, an antisense drug developer in Cambridge, Mass.

Isis, which is based in Carlsbad, Calif., has been pursuing antisense technology since the company's founding in 1989, spending about $2 billion. It had one drug approved in 1998 for an infection associated with AIDS, but the drug did not sell well and some experts said it did not really use the gene-silencing mechanism.

Isis's experience contrasts with that of Gilead Sciences, which was also founded in the late 1980s to pursue antisense technology. It gave up after several years — selling the patents it no longer needed to Isis — and went on to develop antiviral drugs using other techniques. It is now a biotech superstar with a market value of $59.8 billion, compared with $1.4 billion for Isis.

Stanley T. Crooke, the founder and chief executive of Isis since its inception, said the long period of development was not unusual for a new technology.

"I told people it would be at least 20 years and $2 billion before we knew if the technology would work," he said in an interview Tuesday. "We think it's a seminal day for the technology and the company."

Isis or its partners are developing drugs to lower triglycerides, treat spinal muscular atrophy and reduce scarring from operations, among other things. The partners include Biogen Idec, Pfizer and AstraZeneca.

Two rival antisense companies, Sarepta Therapeutics and Prosensa are developing drugs for muscular dystrophy that have shown promise in early clinical trials.

Still, Dr. Cy Stein, a longtime antisense researcher, said it was too early to say that antisense had arrived. There have been false dawns in the field before.

Antisense drugs work essentially by shooting the messenger. The recipe to make a protein is carried from a gene in the nucleus into the body of a cell by a single strand of RNA, called messenger RNA.

Antisense drugs are small snippets of synthetic DNA or RNA that bind to that messenger RNA in a way that inactivates or destroys it.

In theory, an antisense drug can be made to shut down any gene, providing a means to develop a virtually unlimited number of drugs. But in practice, it has been difficult to deliver the drugs into cells with sufficient potency and lack of toxicity. Companies have developed ways to chemically modify the drugs to help in that regard.

Kynamro, known generically as mipomersen, inhibits action of a gene, apolipoprotein B, that is involved in the formation of particles that carry cholesterol in the blood.

If untreated, people with HoFH can have levels of LDL cholesterol, the so-called bad cholesterol, as high as 1,000 milligrams per deciliter. A level of 130 or less for LDL is generally considered desirable.

Statins work for these patients and have helped increase the typical life span to 33 years, from 18, but further cholesterol reduction is needed. Patients can also have their blood cleansed of cholesterol by being connected to a machine for a few hours once a week.

Patients in the main clinical trial of Kynamro started with LDL levels of around 400. After 26 weeks of treatment, those getting Kynamro had a mean decline in LDL cholesterol of 24.7 percent compared with a decline of 3.3 percent for those getting a placebo.

The label for Kynamro will carry a boxed warning about potential liver damage. Other side effects include injection-site reactions and flulike symptoms.

Kynamro will share the market with Juxtapid, a drug developed by Aegerion Pharmaceuticals that won approval last month.

In October, an F.D.A. advisory committee voted 13-to-2 in favor of approval of Juxtapid but only 9-to-6 in favor of Kynamro, largely because of concern about side effects. Juxtapid is a once-a-day pill, while Kynamro is injected once a week.

Genzyme has not announced the price for Kynamro but it might be similar to that of Juxtapid, which costs $235,000 to $295,000 a year, similar to some other drugs for extremely rare conditions.


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Green Blog: Market for Bear Bile Threatens Asian Population

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 29 Januari 2013 | 15.49

Bears await food on a farm in Fujian Province in China that is run by the pharmaceuticals maker Guizhentang. The company legally makes tonics from bear bile.European Pressphoto Agency Bears await food on a farm in Fujian Province in China that is run by the pharmaceuticals maker Guizhentang. The company legally makes tonics from bear bile.

The six bears that arrived this month at Animals Asia, an animal rescue center in China, had the grisly symptoms of inhumane "bile milking." Greenish bile dripped from open fistulas used to drain gall bladders; teeth were broken and rotted from gnawing on the bars of tiny cages.

Four of the bears have since had surgery to remove gall bladders damaged by years of unhygenic procedures to extract their bile, which is coveted for its purported medicinal properties. One bear's swollen gall bladder was the size of a watermelon.

The latest batch of bears was rescued from an illegal farm by the Sichuan Forestry Department and joins 279 other bears at the center, near Chengdu in southwestern China. With luck, these bears will recover at the sanctuary. But thousands on farms, both legal and illegal, continue to suffer in wretched conditions, and countless others living in the wild across Asia are threatened by poaching and their illegal capture.

Bear bile contains a chemical called ursedeoxycholic acid, long used in traditional Chinese medicine to treat gallstones, liver problems and other ailments. There are an estimated 10,000 farmed bears in China, 3,000 in Vietnam, at least 1,000 in South Korea and others in Laos and Myanmar.

Tigers, rhinos and elephants are notoriously poached to satisfy high demand in Asia for their parts, which are falsely assumed to have medicinal properties. Experts warn that sun bears and Asiatic black bears, known colloquially as "moon bears," are on a similar route to endangerment, although their plight draws less media attention. "No bears are extinct, but all Asian ones are threatened," said Chris Shepherd, a conservation biologist and deputy regional director of the wildlife trade group Traffic who is based in Malaysia.

To address the threat, the demand for bear bile must be sharply reduced, Dr. Shepherd, a conservation biologist told hundreds of researchers at the International Conference on Bear Research and Management, an annual event held recently in New Delhi.

Reducing demand would require a multi-pronged effort, experts say. That would mean enforcing existing laws, arresting and prosecuting violators, promoting synthetic and herbal alternatives, and closing illegal farms.

Chinese celebrities like the actor Jackie Chan and the athlete Yao Ming have both spoken out against the bear bile industry to raise public awareness about poaching and the inhumane conditions typically found on farms. Bears often live for years in coffin-like cages in which they are unable to stand or turn around.

The bile is extracted through catheters inserted into the abdomen, with needles or by bringing the gall bladder to the skin's surface, where it will leak bile if prodded.

Legal farming was conceived as a way of increasing the supply of bile to reduce the motivation for poaching wild bears, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature. But there is no evidence that it has done so, it noted in a resolution passed last September, and there is concern among conservationists that it "may be detrimental."

The resolution also called on countries with legal bear farms to close down the illegal ones, to ensure that no wild bears are added to farms; to conduct research into bear bile substitutes (there are dozens of synthetic and herbal alternatives) and to conduct an independent peer-reviewed scientific analysis on whether farming protects wild bears.

Some groups argue that the increased supply of farmed bile has only exacerbated demand. "Because a surplus of bear bile is being produced, bile is used in many non-medical products, like bear bile wine, shampoo, toothpaste and face masks," Animals Asia says. Since bear farming began in China in the early 1980's, bear bile has been aggressively promoted as a cure-all remedy for problems like hangovers, the group added.

In mainland China and Japan, domestic sales of bear bile are legal and theoretically under strict regulation as prescription products. But such sales are illegal in Cambodia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and the international trade is illegal as well.

Yet a 2011 report from Traffic indicated that bear bile products were on sale in traditional medicine outlets in 12 Asian countries and territories.

Nonprescription bear bile products like shampoo or toothpaste are illegal in China yet are readily available for purchase, conservationists say. Tourists from South Korea, a country that has decimated its own wild bear population, are major buyers in China and Vietnam even though taking bear bile products across borders is illegal under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna.

"Farms have drawn in bile consumers by creating a huge market — farmed bile is cheap," said David Garshelis, a research scientist at the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources who is co-chairman of the I.U.C.N.'s bear specialist group.

In Vietnam, a milliliter of bile might sell for $3 to $6; about 100 milliliters can be extracted from a bear each day, according to Annemarie Weegenaar, bear and director of the veterinarian team at Animals Asia's Vietnam center.

In four years, the I.U.C.N. is to issue a report on whether bear farms threaten wild populations. Meanwhile, demand appears to be spreading further afield in Asia and is now growing in Indonesia, largely as a result of demand from the Chinese and Korean communities there, said Gabriella Fredriksson, a conservation biologist based in Sumatra. A low-level poacher can sell a gall bladder from a bear caught in a simple snare and then killed for about $10.

So far the biggest threat to bears in Indonesia is loss of habitat from forest fires and the conversion of land to palm oil plantations. But in the last few years, poaching has increased, said Dr.
Fredriksson, who has been there 15 years.

She cautioned that bears in Indonesia could also become highly threatened. "Fifty years ago, bears were doing well in Cambodia and Laos," she said. "Now there's hardly any left."


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Science Workers Focus of Second Bipartisan Immigration Plan

As one bipartisan group of senators released its blueprint on Monday for a comprehensive overhaul of the immigration laws, another group in the Senate was ready to present a proposal addressing one dysfunctional aspect of the system: a shortage of visas for highly skilled immigrants working in science and technology fields.

Four senators, led by Orrin G. Hatch, a Republican from Utah, will introduce a bill on Tuesday that would greatly increase the number of temporary visas available for those immigrants, and would also free up permanent resident visas, known as green cards, so more of those immigrants could settle in the United States and eventually become citizens.

The bill will be the first legislation introduced in Congress on immigration in a year when the once-toxic issue has gathered surprising political momentum. Lawmakers who have shied away from it in recent years are now offering proposals that they are framing as practical solutions to fix a failing system.

Major technology employers like Microsoft, Oracle and others have been calling for years for more visas for foreigners with computer, engineering and mathematics skills, saying they have more jobs than they can fill with Americans who are graduating in those fields from American universities. White House officials and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle acknowledge that a broad overhaul, including a pathway to citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants, would have a better chance at attracting votes for passage, especially among Republicans, if it had vigorous support from business.

A group of eight senators, led by Charles E. Schumer of New York, a Democrat, and John McCain of Arizona, a Republican, on Monday unveiled principles for an overhaul that focused on solving illegal immigration, with increased border security and measures to give legal status to illegal immigrants. Their blueprint referred to changes for highly skilled immigrants, without specifics.

The bill by Mr. Hatch's smaller group, by contrast, is a detailed plan to recalibrate the high-skilled visa system. It would immediately increase the cap on temporary visas for those immigrants, known as an H-1B, to 115,000 a year from the current maximum of 65,000. It would also create, for the first time, a "market-based" system that would rapidly increase the numbers of those visas if the supply ran out, to a maximum of 300,000 H-1B visas in one year.

In the boom before the recession took hold in 2008, there were several years when businesses snatched up all the available H-1B visas in a few days. The market mechanism in Mr. Hatch's bill would lower the cap on temporary visas if demand from employers declined.

Also sponsoring the bill are Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, a Republican who was among the eight senators endorsing the broader blueprint, and Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Chris Coons of Delaware, both Democrats.

In a statement on Monday, Brad Smith, general counsel and executive vice president of Microsoft, said the company "strongly supports efforts to permanently reform our high-skilled immigration system and enact broad immigration reform in 2013." He enumerated measures the company would like to see in any legislation, including all those in Mr. Hatch's bill.

Randel K. Johnson, senior vice president of the United States Chamber of Commerce, said his organization had worked closely with the senators on the bill and would send "a letter of strong support."

Ms. Klobuchar said immigrants had brought new ideas and businesses to the United States. "I truly believe we have to be a country that makes stuff again, that exports to the world," she said in an interview. "To do that, we have to have innovation."

"Sadly," Ms. Klobuchar said, under the current system "we have been training our competition," because many skilled immigrants were forced to return home after studying and working in the United States.

Mr. Hatch, who fought off a re-election challenge from the right last year, has not said whether he would support comprehensive legislation including legal status for illegal immigrants. Ms. Klobuchar and Mr. Coons said they expected their bill would become part of the broader overhaul.

The bill would allow spouses of temporary immigrants to work, a change that would bring relief to many foreigners — many of them educated women from Asian countries like India — whose careers languished when their spouses came to work in this country. The bill would make it easier for temporary immigrants who are tied to one employer to find a new job if their first job did not work out.

It would also tinker with the system to make more permanent resident green cards available for immigrants in science and technology fields, but without increasing the number of green cards over all, something many Republican lawmakers are loath to do. It would allow the immigration authorities to distribute as many as 300,000 green cards that went unused over the years because of twists in the system.

The bill would make changes to ensure that a much higher percentage of 140,000 employment green cards available each year would go to the skilled immigrants, and not to their family members, as happens now.

Responding to insistent demands from universities, the bill would make an unlimited number of green cards available for foreigners graduating from American universities with advanced science and technology degrees. It would increase visa fees and use the money for training programs for Americans.

Some employee groups said they would oppose the bill, saying the large number of temporary immigrants would undercut wages for Americans. "America is a nation of immigrants, not of guest workers," said Keith Grzelak, vice president of the IEEE-USA, which represents more than 400,000 engineers.


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Temperature Swings Not Uncommon in Kansas City, Missouri

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — T. J. Abogado huffed and puffed, his buzz cut and face sprinkled with sweat. He was wearing short navy blue shorts, but his red T-shirt was now in his hand.

"It got too hot," Mr. Abogado, 27, said on Monday afternoon after jogging a few miles on a sunny day that felt a lot more like June than January.

Was this athletic dedication on display last week?

"No, not at all," he said. "I was in the house hibernating."

Last week the temperature here dropped to 8 degrees, a low for the month. On Monday, the mercury topped out at 74, breaking a 96-year-old record high for the date.

"It's like, 'Jesus, thank you for this wonderful weather,' " Larry Newell, 58, said as he sat shirtless on a swiveling exercise chair in a park.

Winter around here has had all the ups and downs of a choppy ocean.

One day, the air coming from people's shivering nostrils is visible as they shimmy through the streets (or, perhaps more aptly, race from their cars to the nearest building) in puffy down coats. The next day, as was the case on Monday, they shed layers, don tank tops and short shorts, and kick back at restaurant patios to let the sun soak their faces. The temperature changes have been so sudden and extreme that even weather nerds could get caught in the sun with a few too many layers.

"Basically, we have been kind of on a roller-coaster ride temperature-wise across the middle part of the country for the past couple weeks," said Jim Keeney, the weather program manager for the National Weather Service's central region office based here.

Meteorologically, large temperature swings are not that uncommon in Kansas City. The city sits on something of a fence between the warm air of the south and the frigid air of the north, said John Eise, the climate services program manager for the Weather Service's central region.

"That's Midwest weather for you," Lindsey Blakeman, 29, said on Monday as the sun shined off her large sunglasses while she slouched in a patio chair and clutched a tall Starbucks cup.

But even by this city's standards, Monday stood out for just how warm it was. While it is not unusual for the temperature to rise into the high 40s after a cold snap, eclipsing 70 degrees was something people here were not used to experiencing in the week before the Super Bowl.

Part of the reason the upswings in temperature have been higher than usual this winter is that the jet stream has been sitting farther north than usual, Mr. Keeney said. That has kept a lot of the cold air and moisture farther to the north, while the warmer air from the south has flowed into the region, he said.

"This is kind of strange, to say the least," Joel Gard, 54, an insurance broker who lives in nearby Overland Park, Kan., said as he took his regular lunchtime walk around a park in Kansas City.

Usually, Mr. Gard wears a long trench coat. But on Monday, his long-sleeve white button down shirt and tie felt like a bit much.

"I'm too hot now," he said.

Naturally, extreme weather and temperature shifts stoke concern over climate change and global warming. While temperatures have risen globally, Mr. Eise said, there are no definitive studies to suggest that the temperature swings in Kansas City are getting worse or that they are the result of climate change.

"It's just on too short of a time scale and too small of a sample size," he said, later adding, "That's not to say that it doesn't have an impact on it."

As of Sunday, the average temperature here for January was 32.5 degrees, nearly three and a half degrees above the normal January average. But it was nowhere near the all-time-high January average of 60.5 degrees, which happened in 1909, 1944 and 1967. The largest single-day temperature swing on record in January in Kansas City was 57 degrees on Jan. 15, 1953, when the high was 64 degrees and the low was 7.

Around here, where "global warming" can be a bad word, most people seemed to shake off any notion that their postcard-perfect day was part of an ominous, larger climate trend.

"There's no point in freaking out over every little scientific discovery," Ms. Blakeman said. "You enjoy these days while you have them because tomorrow it's going to be negative 20."

Not quite. But the temperature here is expected to dip to 13 degrees by Thursday night.


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Ariel Sharon Brain Scan Shows Response to Stimuli

Written By Unknown on Senin, 28 Januari 2013 | 15.49

JERUSALEM — A brain scan performed on Ariel Sharon, the former Israeli prime minister who had a devastating stroke seven years ago and is presumed to be in a vegetative state, revealed significant brain activity in response to external stimuli, raising the chances that he is able to hear and understand, a scientist involved in the test said Sunday.

Scientists showed Mr. Sharon, 84, pictures of his family, had him listen to a recording of the voice of one of his sons and used tactile stimulation to assess the extent of his brain's response.

"We were surprised that there was activity in the proper parts of the brain," said Prof. Alon Friedman, a neuroscientist at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev and a member of the team that carried out the test. "It raises the chances that he hears and understands, but we cannot be sure. The test did not prove that."

The activity in specific regions of the brain indicated appropriate processing of the stimulations, according to a statement from Ben-Gurion University, but additional tests to assess Mr. Sharon's level of consciousness were less conclusive.

"While there were some encouraging signs, these were subtle and not as strong," the statement added.

The test was carried out last week at the Soroka University Medical Center in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba using a state-of-the-art M.R.I. machine and methods recently developed by Prof. Martin M. Monti of the University of California, Los Angeles. Professor Monti took part in the test, which lasted approximately two hours.

Mr. Sharon's son Gilad said in October 2011 that he believed that his father responded to some requests. "When he is awake, he looks at me and moves fingers when I ask him to," he said at the time, adding, "I am sure he hears me."

Professor Friedman said in a telephone interview that the test results "say nothing about the future" but may be of some help to the family and the regular medical staff caring for Mr. Sharon at a hospital outside Tel Aviv.

"There is a small chance that he is conscious but has no way of expressing it," Professor Friedman said, but he added, "We do not know to what extent he is conscious."


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Saving Tasmanian Devils From Extinction

In November, a team of biologists journeyed to Maria Island, three miles off the Australian island state of Tasmania, taking with them 15 plastic cylinders. They loaded the cylinders into S.U.V.'s, drove them to an abandoned farm and scattered them in the fields.

Before long 15 Tasmanian devils emerged from the containers, becoming the first ever to inhabit the island.

"All indications are that they're doing very well," Phil Wise, a government wildlife biologist who leads the project, said of the devils — fierce-looking, doglike marsupials that have become an endangered species on the much larger island for which they are named.

This spring the team plans to take more devils to Maria (pronounced ma-RYE-uh). The goal is to establish a healthy colony that will endure for decades to come. The stakes of the project are high: the survival of the entire species may depend on it.

Many species are threatened with extinction, but the Tasmanian devil faces a singular enemy: an epidemic of cancer. A type of facial tumor has in effect evolved into a parasite, with the ability to spread quickly from one devil to another, killing its victims in a few months.

"We have very little time to save the species," said Katherine Belov, a biologist at the University of Sydney.

An international network of biologists has spent the past decade figuring out this new kind of disease. "It's been quite a struggle just to learn some of the basics," said Elizabeth Murchison, of the University of Cambridge in England.

But recently Dr. Murchison and other experts have gained important insights into how the cancer evolved into a parasite. Some scientists are now trying to translate that knowledge into a treatment, perhaps a cancer vaccine.

There is no guarantee that these projects will save the devils, so Mr. Wise and his colleagues are setting up a drastic Plan B: they are establishing Maria Island as a cancer-free refuge for wild Tasmanian devils.

Then, if the devils die out in Tasmania, Dr. Belov said, "the disease will be gone from the mainland, and then they can be introduced back in the wild."

Biologists first encountered the cancer in the late 1990s. The tumors grew on the devils' faces or inside their mouths, and within six months the animals were dead. The first cases appeared in eastern Tasmania, and with each passing year the cancer's range expanded westward.

When scientists examined the cells in the tumors, they got a baffling surprise. The DNA from each tumor did not match the Tasmanian devil on which it grew. Instead, it matched the tumors on other devils. That meant that the cancer was contagious, spreading from one animal to another.

There are only a few reports of humans developing cancer from other people's tumors hidden in transplanted skin or other organs. Only one other example of contagious cancer is known from the natural world, a tumor in dogs.

Dr. Murchison led a team of researchers who sequenced the entire genome of two tumor cells. They published the sequences last February, and since then they have launched a project to sequence hundreds more genomes of Tasmanian devil facial tumors.

Their studies and others like them are revealing how the Tasmanian cancer got its start. It probably originated in the 1980s or early 1990s in a single animal, most likely a female. A nerve cell in her face underwent a drastic mutation: its chromosomes shattered and then stitched themselves back together.

"The cell was still able to function, because there wasn't too much DNA lost," Dr. Belov said. "It's a bit of a freak of nature."

The cancer then spread to other devils by taking advantage of their behavior. The animals frequently fight, biting their opponents' faces. During these battles, Tasmanian devils sometimes bite off bits of a tumor. The cells slip into the attacker's own bloodstream and travel to its face. There they grow a new tumor.

Dr. Murchison and her colleagues have identified some 20,000 mutations in the tumors that are not found in normal Tasmanian devil DNA. But they do not know which of those mutations originally gave rise to the cancer.

Recent research is revealing that the cancer has been evolving. "Up until a year ago we thought the tumor was completely stable," Dr. Belov said. "But now we know that's not the case."

She and her colleagues recently examined cancer cells collected from Tasmanian devils in 2007 and 2008, comparing them with cells collected from 2010 to 2012. They surveyed molecular caps that cover some genes, known as methylation marks. These marks can keep genes from producing proteins.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: January 28, 2013

An article on Tuesday about an effort to save Tasmanian devils from an epidemic of cancer referred incorrectly to a contagious cancer in dogs. Canine transmissible venereal tumor can be malignant, it is not benign. (But unlike the Tasmanian devil cancer, it is not causing a lethal epidemic in dogs.)


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2 Science Projects to Receive Billion-Euro Award

BRUSSELS — Projects to imitate the brain and to develop new materials for information technology have won awards of about 1 billion euros each that will be announced Monday by the European Commission.

The awards, the largest of their kind ever made by the European authorities and equivalent to about $1.35 billion each, are aimed at helping innovative industries in the European Union and nonmember countries like Switzerland.

"Europe's position as a knowledge superpower depends on thinking the unthinkable and exploiting the best ideas," Neelie Kroes, the European commissioner for information technology, said in a statement prepared in advance of the formal announcement.

The goal is to "keep Europe competitive, to keep Europe as the home of scientific excellence," Ms. Kroes said.

About half the money, which is to be disbursed over a decade, is expected to come from governments, and the rest from companies, institutes and universities, according to European Union officials. Details of how an initial payment of 54 million euros, almost $73 million, for each project will be allocated should be decided in the coming months, officials said.

A selection committee of scientists and industrialists took two years to whittle a list of more than 20 projects down to two winners. The members of the selection committee have not been identified, but European Union officials said they were carefully vetted to avoid any conflicts of interest.

The Human Brain Project aims to create the most accurate simulation to date of the brain and its functions. The project could help aid diagnoses of diseases, help with the testing of new drugs, and develop supercomputing techniques modeled on the brain.

The project involves scientists from 87 institutions and will be led by Henry Markram, a professor at École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland. Partners in that project include the Institut Pasteur in France, I.B.M. in the United States and SAP in Germany.

The project on new materials will focus on ultrathin graphene, which conducts electricity better than copper, is up to 300 times stronger than steel and could be used to build better display screens. European officials say graphene could also replace and redefine components in devices like computers and phones by, for example, making them foldable.

That project involves more than 100 research groups and will be led by Jari Kinaret, a professor at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden. Members of the consortium include the University of Cambridge in England and Nokia in Finland.

The European Union trails the United States in innovation, and that gap has been widening in some categories like research and development spending by business, according to a study issued by the European Commission in February 2012.

The bloc also lags behind Japan and South Korea in innovation, according to the study. And while the European Union is doing better than the biggest emerging nations, China is catching up, partly because of its strength in exports of medium and high-tech products, the study said.

European Union governments stepped up their calls for initiatives to address specific science and technology challenges at the end of 2009. The European Commission then came forward with plans for financing worth up to 2 billion euros, almost $2.7 billion, over a decade.

The plan breaks with previous scientific initiatives that have normally run in cycles of two to four years. Ms. Kroes said the new financing model should deliver innovative technologies more quickly.

The decision meant disappointment for some projects, including FuturICT, which had aimed at creating "a planetary scale computer" for helping predict events like natural disasters. Some of the reasoning used to reject FuturICT was "quite crazy," and the project's leaders should be "pretty shocked," Alex Vespignani, a professor at Northeastern University in Boston who is a supporter, wrote on the project's Web site.

Exactly how much money from the central European Union budget will go to the two winners and to a huge array of other projects, including additional possible projects on the scale of those focused on graphene and the human brain, will partly depend on the outcome of a battle between leaders in the bloc on the size of the next long-term budget.


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Green Blog: On Our Radar: A Spinning Solar Cell

Written By Unknown on Minggu, 27 Januari 2013 | 15.49

A solar venture says it has developed a "spin cell" technology using specialized lensing and a rotating conical shape that could generate five times more electricity from a given amount of land than conventional solar methods. It says the electricity would cost only 8 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared with 10 to 15 cents for electricity generated by conventional photovoltaic panels. [Clean Technica]

A federal appeals court in Denver refuses to reconsider its decision to uphold the Obama administration's withdrawal of dozens of federal oil and gas drilling leases that were sold in the waning days of the George W. Bush administration. [The Salt Lake Tribune]

A dolphin with a curved spine and impaired swimming skills gets a warm welcome from a group of sperm whales. Researchers suggest that the dolphin had been bullied or ostracized by its own, faster peers. [Science]

A start-up has developed a thermal battery that will be used to cool milk in Indian dairies, compensating for frequent blackouts on the nation's grid. [M.I.T. Technology Review]


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Dot Earth Blog: Weaker Global Warming Seen in Study Promoted by Norway's Research Council

Purveyors of climate doubt have seized on a news release from the Research Council of Norway with this provocative title: "Global warming less extreme than feared?" The release describes new research finding that global warming from the buildup of greenhouse gases will be on the low end of the persistently wide spread of projections by other research groups. (There's a presentation describing the work below.)

This may well end up being the case (I'd give it higher than even odds; even so, that doen't justify an "all clear" alert). But this particular analysis has, as yet, not been published in a peer-reviewed journal. This means that although the release comes from a prestigious government science agency, the work needs a publicity before publication caution label. I created one just for this purpose (above) and will use it when needed.

This is hardly the first instance of a promotion-before-review approach to climate discourse. For instance, Richard Muller's Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project took this path (one of that group's five papers has finally made it into a journal). (This phenomenon is not limited to climate science, of course; here's an example related to the fight over gas drilling.)

Earlier today I sent the following query to the Research Council of Norway and I'll update this post when I hear more: 

With some urgency I'm trying to get some clarity on the status of the climate sensitivity analysis that the Research Council promoted yesterday. Is it published in a peer-reviewed journal? The only relevant study I could find was published last year (see below).

Perhaps it's more like a U.S. National Academy report? If so, please describe the level of peer review. The work is being aggressively disseminated by bloggers and news outlets that focus on any research casting doubt on the importance of greenhouse-driven warming.

Thanks for any input clarifying the status of the research and explaining why it was released now if it's not yet accepted for publication?

I included a link to a presentation on the paper (which you can read below) and to this relevant paper from last year:

Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content

Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, Peter Guttorp, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Gunnar Myhre, Terje Koren Berntsen

Here's a presentation about the new analysis of global warming (the closest thing I've seen to the paper itself):

Norwegian Study Finds Limited Warming from Doubled Greenhouse Gases by Andrew Revkin

Finally, for those who want to dig in a bit, here's a comment I received from Reto Knutti, a Swiss climate scientist, after I sent the Norwegian release and presentation around:

As you said, Aldrin et al. (DOI: 10.1002/env.2140) is published, whereas Skeie et al. is not yet as far as I know. But here are some thoughts that are largely independent of this paper to put these types of studies in context.

If you look at the Fig. 3a in our review (red lines at the top) you see that many previous estimates based on the observed warming/ocean heat uptake had a tendency to peak at values below 3°C (that review is from 2008). The Norwegian study is just another one of these studies looking at the global energy budget. The first ones go back more than a decade, so the idea is hardly new. The idea is always the same: if you assume a distribution for the observed warming, the ocean heat uptake, and the radiative forcing, then you can derive a distribution for climate sensitivity.

What is obvious is that including the data of the past few years pushes the estimates of climate sensitivity downward, because there was little warming over the past decade despite a larger greenhouse gas forcing. Also in some datasets the ocean warming in the top 700 meters is rather small, with very small uncertainties (Levitus GRL 2012), pushing the sensitivity down further. However, in my view one should be careful in over interpreting these results for several reasons:

a) the uncertainties in the assumed radiative forcings are still very large. Recently, Solomon et al. Science (2010, 2011) raised questions about the stratospheric water vapor and aerosol, and just days ago there was another paper arguing for a larger effect of black carbon (http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2013/2013-01.shtml, a massive 280 pages…).

b) Results are sensitive to the data used, as shown by Libardoni and Forest DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049431 and others, and particularly sensitive to how the last decade of data is treated. Very different methods (detection attribution optimal fingerprint) have also shown that the last decade makes a difference (Gillett et al. 2011, doi:10.1029/2011GL050226).

c) The uncertainties in the ocean heat uptake may be underestimated by Levitus, and there are additional uncertainties regarding the role of deep ocean heat uptake (Meehl et al. 2011 Nature Climate Change).

Even though we have many of these studies (and I am responsible for a couple of them) I'm getting more and more nervous about them, because they are so sensitive to the climate model, the prior distributions, the forcing, the ocean data, the error model, etc. The reason for this, to a large extent, is that the data constraint is weak, so the outcome (posterior) is dominated by what you put in (prior).

It is important to note that the IPCC assessment of climate sensitivity is based on many lines of evidence (see Fig. 3 in our 2008 review for an overview). The observed energy budget is just one of them. The latest paleoclimate synthesis (Rohling et al. Nature 2012) supports the "likely 2-4.5°C", and all GCMs have sensitivities in the range 2-5°C, the mean in CMIP5 is above 3°C, and once you start evaluating models with observations that tends to get pushed upward (Fasullo and Trenberth, Science 2012).

Finally, note that the effect of the last few years of data is smaller on the transient climate response than on climate sensitivity. It's the transient climate response (TCR) that determines the 21st century warming and peak warming.


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Donald Hornig, A-Bomb Scientist and Brown President, Dies at 92

In a small shed at the top of a 100-foot-tall steel tower deep in the New Mexico desert, Donald Hornig sat next to the world's first atomic bomb in the late evening of July 15, 1945, reading a book of humorous essays. A storm raged, and he shuddered at each lightning flash.

It was his second trip to the tower that day as part of the Manhattan Project, the secret American effort to build an atomic bomb. He had earlier armed the device, code-named Trinity, connecting switches he had designed to the detonators.

But J. Robert Oppenheimer, the scientific director of the project, had grown nervous about leaving the bomb alone. He told Dr. Hornig to return to the tower and baby-sit the bomb.

A little after midnight, the weather had improved, and Dr. Hornig was ordered down from the tower. He was the last man to leave and the last to see the weapon before it changed human history.

A little more than five miles away, Dr. Oppenheimer and others waited in a bunker to see if the device they called "the gadget" would actually go off. After Dr. Hornig joined them, he took his position for his next task: placing his finger on a console switch that when pressed would abort the blast, should anything appear awry. The countdown began, his finger at the ready.

The bomb was detonated at 5:29:45 a.m. on July 16 as Dr. Hornig and the others watched from the bunker. He later remembered the swirling orange fireball filling the sky as "one of the most aesthetically beautiful things I have ever seen."

Three weeks later, an atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima. Three days after that, another fell on Nagasaki.

It was the dawn of the nuclear age and also of a career that took Dr. Hornig to the White House as science adviser to President Lyndon B. Johnson and to academic eminence as the president of Brown University in Providence, R.I., where he died on Monday at 92, his family said.

Dr. Hornig worked under Johnson from 1964 to 1969, conferring with him on space missions and atom smashers as well as on more practical matters, like providing sufficient hospital beds for Medicare patients and desalting water for drinking.

He had actually been President John F. Kennedy's choice for science adviser. Kennedy had asked him to take the job shortly before his assassination in 1963, and Johnson followed through with the appointment.

Working for Johnson was reportedly not easy. The president was said to disdain scientists and academics after so many of them had voiced opposition to the Vietnam War, which made it difficult for his science adviser to lobby for them.

But when a power blackout hit the Northeast in 1965, the president turned to Dr. Hornig for guidance, as he did when earthquakes hit Denver. After Senator Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1968, Johnson sought Dr. Hornig's advice on ways to detect concealed weapons.

Under Johnson, Dr. Hornig doubled the budget of what is now the Office of Science and Technology Policy, which he led, and pushed for federal research in housing and transportation. He also helped kill a proposal to put giant mirrors into orbit over Vietnam to spotlight the enemy at night.

As the president of Brown from 1970 to 1976, Dr. Hornig established a four-year medical school. He oversaw the merger of Pembroke College, Brown University's women's school, with Brown College, the men's undergraduate school. He faced student protests, including a 40-hour sit-in at Brown's administrative building, over cost cutting, minority admissions and other matters.

He met some student demands but later declared that the university would never again negotiate with students occupying a building. He described his presidency as "bittersweet."

Donald Frederick Hornig was born on March 17, 1920, in Milwaukee and attended Harvard, earning his undergraduate degree there in 1940 and his Ph.D. in 1943, both in chemistry. His dissertation was titled "An Investigation of the Shock Wave Produced by an Explosion," and he went to work at the Underwater Explosives Laboratory of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Massachusetts.

He joined the Manhattan Project after his boss at Woods Hole passed along a mysterious invitation asking him to take an unspecified job at an unspecified location. No explanations were offered, and Dr. Hornig declined. James B. Conant, the president of Harvard, helped persuade him to change his mind.

Dr. Honig and his new wife, the former Lilli Schwenk, bought an old Ford with frayed tires and puttered to New Mexico. His wife, who also had a Ph.D. in chemistry, worked for the project as a typist, and then as a scientist.

Dr. Hornig is survived by his wife, as well as two daughters, Joanna Hornig Fox and Ellen Hornig; a son, Christopher; a brother, Arthur; a sister, Arlene Westfahl; nine grandchildren; and 10 great-grandchildren. His daughter Leslie Elizabeth Hornig died last year.

After World War II, Dr. Hornig was a professor and a dean at Brown and then moved to Princeton as the chairman of the chemistry department. While at Princeton, he was on President Dwight D. Eisenhower's scientific advisory committee.

Dr. Hornig was briefly a vice president at the Eastman Kodak Company before accepting Brown's presidency. After leaving Brown, he taught at Harvard's public health school, retiring in 1990. He was one of the youngest scientists ever elected to the National Academy of Sciences.


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F.D.A. Panel Recommends Restrictions on Hydrocodone Products Like Vicodin

Written By Unknown on Sabtu, 26 Januari 2013 | 15.49

Trying to stem the scourge of prescription drug abuse, an advisory panel of experts to the Food and Drug Administration voted on Friday to toughen the restrictions on painkillers like Vicodin that contain hydrocodone, the most widely prescribed drugs in the country. 

The recommendation, which the drug agency is likely to follow, would limit access to the drugs by making them harder to prescribe, a major policy change that advocates said could help ease the growing problem of addiction to painkillers, which exploded in the late 1990s and continues to strike hard in communities from Appalachia and the Midwest to New England. 

But at 19 to 10, the vote was far from unanimous, with some opponents expressing skepticism that the change would do much to combat abuse. Oxycodone, another highly abused painkiller and the main ingredient in OxyContin, has been in the more restrictive category since it first came on the market, they pointed out in testimony at a public hearing. They also said the change could create unfair obstacles for patients in chronic pain. 

 Painkillers now take the lives of more Americans than heroin and cocaine combined, and since 2008, drug-induced deaths have outstripped those from traffic accidents. Prescription drugs account for about three-quarters of all drug overdose deaths in the United States, with the number of deaths from painkillers quadrupling since 1999, according to federal data.

The change would have sweeping consequences for doctors, pharmacists and patients. Refills without a new prescription would be forbidden, as would faxed prescriptions and those called in by phone. Only written prescriptions from a doctor would be allowed. Distributors would be required to store the drugs in special vaults.

The vote comes after similar legislation in Congress failed last year, after aggressive lobbying by pharmacists and drugstores.

"This is the federal government saying, 'We need to tighten the reins on this drug,' " said Scott R. Drab, associate professor of pharmacy and therapeutics at the University of Pittsburgh's School of Pharmacy. "Pulling in the rope is a way to rein in abuse, and, consequently, addiction."

But at the panel's two-day hearing at F.D.A. headquarters in Silver Spring, Md., many spoke against the change, including advocates for nursing home patients, who said frail residents with chronic pain would have to make the trip to a doctor's office. The change would also ban nurse practitioners and physician assistants from prescribing the drugs, making it harder for people in underserved rural areas.

Panelists also cautioned that the change would produce a whack-a-mole effect, pushing up abuse of other drugs, like heroin, which has declined in recent years.

"Many of us are concerned that the more stringent controls will eventually lead to different problems, which may be worse," said Dr. John Mendelson, a senior scientist at the Addiction and Pharmacology Research Laboratory at the California Pacific Medical Center Research Institute in San Francisco.

The F.D.A. convened the panel, made up of scientists, pain doctors and other experts, after a request by the Drug Enforcement Administration, which contends that the drugs are among the most frequently abused painkillers and should be more tightly controlled.

If the F.D.A. accepts the panel's recommendation, it will be sent to officials at the Department of Health and Human Services, who will make the final determination. The F.D.A. denied a similar request by the D.E.A. in 2008, but the law enforcement agency requested that the F.D.A. reconsider its position in light of new research and data.

While hydrocodone products are the most widely prescribed painkillers, they make up a minority of deaths, because there is less medication in each tablet than some of the other more restricted drugs, like extended-release oxycodone products, said Dr. Nathaniel Katz, assistant professor of anesthesia at Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston. Oxycodone and methadone products account for about two-thirds of drug overdose deaths, he said, despite accounting for only a fraction of hydrocodone prescriptions.

The importance of Friday's vote was more symbolic, he said, a message to doctors that they will need to think twice before prescribing hydrocodone, and to patients that the days of "unbridled access" are coming to an end. The tide has been turning against easy opioid prescriptions, as the medical system and federal regulators slowly make adjustments to reduce the potential for abuse.

"It will help shape thinking," said Dr. Katz, whose clinical research company, Analgesic Solutions, is trying to develop other treatments for pain. "It's an important marker in the progressively more conservative swing of the pendulum in opioid prescribing."

He cautioned that patients who need the medications for pain should not suffer inappropriate barriers to access because of the change, a concern that the dissenters shared.  Medical professionals battling the prescription drug abuse epidemic applauded the change.

"This may be the single most important intervention undertaken at the federal level to bring the epidemic under control," said Dr. Andrew Kolodny, chairman of psychiatry at Maimonides Medical Center in New York and president of Physicians for Responsible Opioid Prescribing, a New York-based advocacy group. "This is about correcting a mistake made 40 years ago that's had disastrous consequences."

Testimony at the hearing included emotional appeals from parents who had lost their children to painkiller addiction. Senator Joe Manchin III, a Democrat from West Virginia, a state that has been hit hard by the prescription drug epidemic, pleaded for tougher restrictions.

"When I go back to West Virginia, I hear how easy it is for anybody to get their hands on hydrocodone drugs," Mr. Manchin said. "For under-age children, these drugs are easier to get than beer or cigarettes."


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Court Overturns E.P.A.’s Biofuels Mandate

WASHINGTON — A federal appeals court threw out a federal rule on renewable fuels on Friday, saying that a quota set by the Environmental Protection Agency for incorporating liquids made from woody crops and wastes into car and truck fuels was based on wishful thinking rather than realistic estimates of what could be achieved.

The ruling by the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia involved a case brought by the American Petroleum Institute, whose members were bound by the 2012 cellulosic biofuels quota being challenged.

Production of advanced biofuels for use in gasoline is a cherished goal of the Obama administration and a major long-term hope for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.

But production of the "cellulosic" fuel, made from woody material, has been slow to start up, making it virtually impossible to come by. That has presented the refiners, the ones required to buy the cellulosic fuel, with a quandary.

From 2010 through 2012, the E.P.A. has required gradually higher levels of cellulosic fuel to be incorporated into motor fuel each year, for a total of 20 million gallons to date.

But actual production has been near zero.

While the mandate springs from a 2007 act of Congress meant to promote advanced biofuels to run cars and trucks, "we are not convinced that Congress meant for E.P.A. to let that intent color its work as a predictor, to let the wish be father to the thought," the court wrote.

Bob Greco, the American Petroleum Institute's director for downstream and industry operations, welcomed the decision, saying that the structure for setting the quota was flawed.

"There is no onus or accountability on the person who is producing the fuel," he said of the emergent cellulosic fuel ventures in an interview. "They're incentivized to pump up their projections via press release, and make rosy estimates because there's no skin off their back if they fail to hit those."

Then the E.P.A. sets quotas that are too high, he said.

The three-judge panel made a similar point in its decision. The cellulosic fuel rule is fundamentally different from other regulations, it said.

It is intended to force an industry to develop new technology to meet environmental goals, but in this case, the regulated industry was the refiner, not the producer, the court said.

"Apart from their role as captive consumers, the refiners are in no position to ensure, or even contribute to, growth in the cellulosic biofuel industry," the judges wrote.

They said the E.P.A.'s message was essentially, "Do a good job, cellulosic fuel producers. If you fail, we'll fine your customers."

But the Renewable Fuels Association, a trade group that represents the cellulosic manufacturers, said the agency had acted reasonably.

"The E.P.A. did not determine a reasonably achievable volume and then inflate it," the association said in a statement. "Rather, it set the volume based on the best information available to it at the time."

The group also said that the decision did not constitute a broader rollback of the renewable fuel standard, which is what the oil industry was seeking.

Given that the larger category of advanced biofuels is left intact, the decision could lead to increased use of two noncellulosic fuels that are "advanced," biodiesel made from fat and waste or soybeans, and ethanol from Brazilian sugar cane, to fill the gap. The Brazilian ethanol is considered advanced because making it from sugar requires less energy than making it from corn, as producers do in this country.

Cellulosic fuel that is produced from woody crop matter or waste can either be ethanol or components of gasoline or diesel fuel.

If cellulosic biofuel can eventually be commercialized, it would represent a triple play for administration policy. It would help cut oil imports, which would advance the nation's energy security and its balance of payments. It would lower the amount of carbon loaded into the atmosphere. And if the technology can be exported, it would also reduce the importance of oil-exporting countries globally.

There are signs that the cellulosic sector could soon gain some momentum. Several companies have invested tens of millions of dollars in building commercial-scale projects. Last year, two companies said they were near production.

KiOR, one of the two companies, said on Friday that it had sold 1,024 gallons of diesel fuel in December that was produced at its plant in Columbus, Miss., but that it could provide no additional details in advance of its next earnings report.

The other venture, Ineos Bio, said it could not immediately respond to questions about the production status of its cellulose-to-ethanol plant in Vero Beach, Fla.


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Time and Punishment: Police Have Done More Than Prisons to Cut Crime in New York

Todd Heisler/The New York Times

Officers on patrol in the 73rd Precinct in Brooklyn. Under Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly, the New York police have focused on crime-prone areas, aided by computer mapping.

Now that the United States has the world's highest reported rate of incarceration, many criminologists are contemplating another strategy. What if America reverted to the penal policies of the 1980s? What if the prison population shrank drastically? What if money now spent guarding cellblocks was instead used for policing the streets?

John Tierney, the Findings columnist for Science Times, is exploring the social science of incarceration. Articles in this series will look at the effects of current policies on families and communities, and new ideas for dealing with offenders.

Connect with NYTMetro

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Béatrice de Géa for The New York Times

"If you had a dollar to spend on reducing crime, and you looked at the science instead of the politics, you would never spend it on the prison system," Micheal Jacobson, president of the Vera Institute of Justice and former New York City correction and probation commissioner, said.

In short, what would happen if the rest of the country followed New York City's example?

As the American prison population has doubled in the past two decades, the city has been a remarkable exception to the trend: the number of its residents in prison has shrunk. Its incarceration rate, once high by national standards, has plunged well below the United States average and has hit another new low, as Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg announced recently. And crime in the city has fallen by more than 75 percent, almost twice as much as in the rest of the country.

Whatever has made New York the safest big city in America, that feat has certainly not been accomplished by locking up more criminals.

"The precise causes of New York's crime decline will be debated by social scientists until the Sun hits the Earth," said Michael Jacobson, a criminologist who ran the city's Correction and Probation Departments during the 1990s and is now the president of the Vera Institute of Justice, a criminal justice research group. "But the 50,000-foot story from New York is that you can drive down crime while decreasing your jail and prison population — and save a huge amount of money in the process."

New York's singular success has attracted attention across the country from public officials whose budgets have been strained by the prison boom. The 2.3 million people behind bars in America, a fifth of the world's prisoners, cost taxpayers more than $75 billion a year. The strict penal policies were intended to reduce crime, but they have led to a historic, if largely unrecognized, shift in priorities away from policing.

"The United States today is the only country I know of that spends more on prisons than police," said Lawrence W. Sherman, an American criminologist on the faculties of the University of Maryland and Cambridge University in Britain. "In England and Wales, the spending on police is twice as high as on corrections. In Australia it's more than three times higher. In Japan it's seven times higher. Only in the United States is it lower, and only in our recent history."

Before the era of mass incarceration began in the 1980s, local policing accounted for more than 40 percent of spending for criminal justice, while 25 percent went to prisons and parole programs. But since 1990, nearly 35 percent has gone to the prison system, while the portion of criminal justice spending for local policing has fallen to slightly more than 30 percent.

New York, while now an exception to the mass-incarceration trend, also happens to be the place that inspired it. When New York State four decades ago commissioned an evaluation of programs to rehabilitate criminals, the conclusions were so discouraging that the researchers were initially forbidden to publish them.

Eventually one of the criminologists, Robert Martinson, summarized the results in 1974 in the journal Public Interest. His article, "What Works? Questions and Answers About Prison Reform," was soon known as the "nothing works" thesis. Dr. Martinson concluded that rehabilitation strategies "cannot overcome, or even appreciably reduce, the powerful tendencies of offenders to continue in criminal behavior."

An outgrowth of the study was a consensus to eliminate parole for many offenders and to mandate long sentences determined by formulas rather than rely on the discretion of judges and parole boards.

Dr. Martinson wrote an article in 1979 recanting his "nothing works" conclusion, but by then it was too late. The trend toward tougher sentences continued, causing prison populations to grow rapidly in the 1980s throughout the country, including in New York. When crime kept rising anyway, sentences often were further lengthened.

But New York diverged from the national trend in the early 1990s, when it began expanding its police force and introduced a computerized system to track crimes and complaints. Officers also aggressively enforced laws against guns, illegal drugs and petty crimes like turnstile jumping in the subways. Arrests for misdemeanors increased sharply.

Yet serious crime went down. So though more people were being locked up for brief periods — including many who were unable to make bail and were awaiting trial — the local jail population was shrinking and fewer city residents were serving time in state prisons.

"Even with more people coming into the system, the overall bed count was declining because people weren't staying as long," Dr. Jacobson, who was correction commissioner from 1995 to 1998, recalled.

"It was a nightmare to administer because there was so much churning and turnover, but it was good news for the city."

Saving $1.5 Billion a Year

Even as the city grew by nearly a million people in the last two decades, the number of New Yorkers behind bars fell by a third, to below 40,000 today.

If the city had followed the national trend, nearly 60,000 additional New Yorkers would be behind bars today, and the number of city and state correction officers would have more than doubled since 1990, said Franklin E. Zimring, a criminologist at the University of California, Berkeley.

By not expanding the jail and prison populations, he calculates in his 2011 book, "The City That Became Safe," the city and the state have been saving $1.5 billion a year, more than twice as much as it cost to finance the additional police officers in the 1990s.


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