Israel’s Iron Dome System Is at Center of Debate

Uriel Sinai/Getty Images

An interceptor from Israel's Iron Dome antimissile system was fired in November to hit and destroy incoming rockets from Gaza.

After President Obama arrived in Israel, his first stop on Wednesday was to inspect an installation of Iron Dome, the antimissile system hailed as a resounding success in the Gaza conflict in November. The photo op, celebrating a technological wonder built with the help of American dollars, came with considerable symbolism as Mr. Obama sought to showcase support for Israel after years of tensions over Jewish settlements and how to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Unstated amid the good will, though, was an intensifying debate over whether Iron Dome's feats of warhead destruction were more illusory than real.

Israeli officials initially claimed success rates of up to 90 percent. Michael Oren, Israel's ambassador to the United States, hailed the antimissile system as the first to succeed in combat. Congress recently called the system "very effective" and pledged an additional $680 million for deployments through 2015.

But a growing chorus of weapons experts in the United States and in Israel say their studies — based largely on analyses of hits and misses captured on video — suggest that Iron Dome destroyed no more than 40 percent of incoming warheads and perhaps far fewer. Many rockets, they argue, were simply crippled or deflected — failures that often let intact or dying rockets fall on populated areas.

"They're smart people," Richard M. Lloyd, a weapons expert who has written a critique of Iron Dome for engineers and weapons designers, said of the system's makers in an interview. "But the problems go on and on."

Behind that skepticism lie the messy realities of combat, as well as a half-century of global antimissile failures. "No military system is 90 percent effective," said Philip E. Coyle III, who once ran the Pentagon's weapons-testing program and recently left a White House security post.

For Iron Dome, the performance issue is important, in part, because defense bears strongly on offense. Israel's decision on whether to bomb Iran's nuclear sites — as it has repeatedly threatened to do — could hinge on its estimate of the retaliatory costs, including damage inflicted by rockets fired from southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

Iron Dome is the newest and smallest of Israel's antimissile systems. Its interceptors — just 6 inches wide and 10 feet long — rely on miniature sensors and computerized brains to zero in on its specialty, short-range rockets. Israel's larger interceptors — the Patriot and Arrow systems — can fly longer distances to go after bigger threats. All have employed explosive warheads to shatter enemy targets, and all have faced doubts about their performance and military value.

Critics say explosions in the sky are hailed as evidence of success when the blasts in most cases simply represent interceptor warheads blowing up.

In an interview, a senior Israeli official denied that explanation, insisting that Iron Dome excelled. Last week, as news of the skeptical analyses spread in Israel, the Defense Ministry issued a statement deploring "baseless claims" that relied on "amateur YouTube videos." It called the security establishment "more than content with the system's impressive results."

The United States contributed an initial $275 million, and deployments began two years ago. Amid rising anxiety over Iran, the Israeli public saw Iron Dome's early successes against intermittent fire from Gaza as "a proof that the country could endure" retaliatory strikes, according to Uzi Rubin, founder of Israel's antimissile program.

The big test came over eight days in November, when Gaza militants fired some 1,500 rockets. As sirens wailed and Israelis ran for cover, the interceptors shot up in waves, exploding in fire and thunder.

Iron Dome commanders fire only when radar systems and computer projections of rocket trajectories show threats to populated areas. Israeli officials say Iron Dome missed 58 incoming rockets while destroying 421. They now put Iron Dome's overall success rate at 84 percent rather than the 90 percent figure.

By all accounts, the interceptor's warhead fires when its sensors indicate an enemy rocket nearby — an encounter zone said to be up to several feet wide. The ensuing blast emits speeding metal fragments that in theory penetrate the rocket's warhead and prompt it to explode.

The system's maker, an Israeli company called Rafael, says in a promotional video that the interceptor is designed "to ensure destruction" of the enemy warhead.

That is precisely the claim critics have challenged.

David E. Sanger contributed reporting.

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